Dave Erfle – How Will Coming Fed Policy And Higher Inflation Affect Markets?
David Erfle, Founder and Editor of Junior Mining Junky, joins us to discuss how the Fed policy and higher inflation could shape the larger market response in precious metals, general equities, and bonds. We review to what extent the tapering, which Jerome Powell is supposed to announce starts at the coming November Fed meeting is already priced in. We also flush out just what effect hiking rates would have on the markets, and just how high the central bank can even raise rates before running into a challenge with the massive interest payments on debt.
Click here to learn more about Dave’s newsletter – The Junior Miner Junky.
IPT hanging in there at $0.66CAD.
Over the weekend I looked at a bunch of small Aussie miners scrambling to get into silver space. Not one of them worth a second look. They’re just too late to the event, not even standing room available anymore.
That’s interesting. Now that I think about it, I don’t remember ever coming across an Aussie silver miner.
IPT looks great versus silver but is now at important resistance that used to be important support. Will it take a week or two to get through it or take it back immediately? I have a feeling it could be a bit of both. It takes it back for this week’s close but then moves below it sometime next week at least briefly. That’s just a guess. Either way is fine.
IPT:Silver
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p00967051456&a=951207497
There aren’t many Aussie Silver mining stocks, but on my Silver watchlist I show a few on the menu:
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Argent Minerals (ARD.AX)
Boab Metals (BML.AX)
Galena Mining (G1A.AX)
Investigator Resources (IVR.AX)
Macphersons Resources (MRP.AX)
Pacifico Minerals (PMY.AX)
Silver Mines (SVL.AX)
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> I’m not up to speed on any of those and have no idea if they are good companies or if they are primary silver or secondary silver companies – (some companies have 2 or 3 projects and if one had a significant amount of silver to be a serious economic factor then I threw them on the watchlist).
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It just seemed like an interesting topic of how there are so few Silver companies in Australia. If there are more Aussie Ag companies that people know of, it would be great to get their names or tickers.
Link to the article on Aussie silver stocks.
https://smallcaps.com.au/silver-supply-doubts-grow-australia-gears-up-bring-on-mines/
Thanks for sharing that Terry. I picked up 2 more Aussie silver stocks from the article not on the list up above:
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Manuka Resources (ASX: MKR)
Thomson Resources (ASX: TMZ)
Regarding that silver chart, I should have pointed out that the target of the H&S bottom was reached on Friday.
There’s fork resistance at around 25.12 and 25.40 this week:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p63497028827&a=500464214
Miners are just making an oversold bounce. Gold will disappoint again and test 1700 level again before any major breakout in metals. Many economist saying gold will not make new highs until 2023.
I would like Corey to take a pill from many of his quest and post results on weekend showing who and what thier prediction on gold price will be say June 2022 and Dec 2022. Show both column’s. Then we can see who forecast was closest. I’m tired of hearing prediction change everytime momentum changes. Many calling that metals and miners moving higher because of inflation going forward be nice to see the poll of all regulars on site metal price looking out 6 months and year ahead.
Putting The 2021 Price Action In Gold In A Long Term Context
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Goldfinger – Oct 26, 2021 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis
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“While there is always an urge to create a narrative to explain every market move, and to infer what recent price action means about the future, the reality is that markets often spend a lot of time consolidating in a largely sideways range. This is what gold has been doing in 2021, after tremendous bull market years in 2019 and 2020, and there is insufficient evidence to proclaim that the long term secular uptrend is resuming OR that a bear market is beginning. The crisscrossing back and forth above and below the US$1800 tells us all we need to know about the shorter term trend, or lack thereof, in gold.”
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https://youtu.be/SVwPTKGN1uo
That was a really solid video on TA there from Goldfinger, where he starts with the hourly and 2 hour charts and shows all the noise and dithering from market commentators as Gold gets to either side of $1800 with comments like “wow it’s a break out and ready to fly” … or “oh no, Gold is for sure getting ready to break down – watch out below” etc…. etc…
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Then he scans back to the monthly chart going back to when the secular bull market started in 2001 and shows that Gold is still very much in a longer term bull market (once all the noise and bias is removed). Bingo!
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Keep the main thing the main thing. Longer term Gold is still very much in a secular bull market despite the corrective moves along the way.
Let’s here it for the Main Thing…
Gold Will Be Off To The Races When We See This with Pro Mining Investor David Erfle
– Oct 26, 2021 – Mining Stock Education
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0:00 Introduction
0:38 Precious metals commentary
5:18 Identifying a major low in gold/silver
9:06 Gold & interest rates can go up simultaneously
12:45 Dave breaks down a 90% gain he just had in 2wks
17:45 Gold sector M&A
20:17 Investing in developers during inflationary times
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https://youtu.be/bxB9_LRyWik
GDX day: important day IMHO…Wykoff ice right here…33.08
Thanks, I had to look up Wykoff Ice. There’s probably a reason a backtest of broken support gets his name but I don’t know what it is.
I have to say that I’m not worried beyond the short term about this level stopping the move. That’s based on price action and much more.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04367792063&a=1051113130
It is just a tool for when it helps…I best eyeball fit the horizontal line thru meaningful swings and bi-sect the oscillations with a horizontal line…done…if price moves above w conviction(volume)/ buy…breaks below w conviction/sell….we are right on this so it is a giant doji of indecision…meaningless…gdx yesterday bar was tested again today and failed on price to move higher…but the rejection was on almost the same volume…so another jab up is very possible…Thanks for all you do Matthew…I value your work lots more than you know…regards
Thanks Larry and thank you for all that you share!
Another simple look at GDX:GLD looks great to me…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p01306412553&a=1051186983
Speed line resistance (green) has stopped this one-month move so far and just above it, we have a 61.8% Fibonacci fan resistance…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p29418185661&a=1051124412
Here’s the same chart but with moving averages added. Taking back those long term MAs as well as the March and August lows was/is a big deal. The bears are toast though most don’t know it yet.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p89740624525&a=1051124412
GDX vs Gold (GLD) is in sync with GDX vs the dollar and that’s a good thing. GDX looks far better than real money or the king of fraud money.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p22577467547&a=1051132321
Deja vue, year 50.
Blackstone CEO Predicts The Energy Crisis Will Worsen Inflation And Prompt Social Unrest
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Huileng Tan – 8 hours ago
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“The energy shortage is severe enough that it could cause a lot of unhappiness and social unrest, said Blackstone CEO, Stephen Schwarzman.”
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“Benchmark US oil futures are around $85 a barrel after surging about 75% year-to-date.”
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“Oil could rise to $100 a barrel,” said BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.
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https://www.businessinsider.com/energy-crisis-worsens-inflation-prompts-social-unrest-blackstone-ceo-2021-10
Larry Fink could have told us that from Jail as Blackrock’s activity is probably more damaging than the price of oil. But anyway…
Last two days in my account have been intervened again with alternating day half/half my account up/down. It was showing signs of a break-out and then the brakes went on. Will have to see if remainder of today and week show some upward movements. Possibly the infrastructure bill will give it legs. If nothing else we won’t have to listen to all the self-centered political jockeying motivated by their contributions from benefactors…geesh…
Silver could finish 3.5% lower tomorrow without causing a technical problem but I doubt that it will. In fact, based on the intraday SLV charts, a move up looks more likely.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p96109486122&a=1040763614